Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 186.533275 227.983225 279.944142 351.213948 448.633288 5.805948e+02 7.792678e+02
2025-01-26 147.591901 198.506312 271.574930 389.251874 585.130177 9.223000e+02 1.613964e+03
2025-02-02 124.526210 178.900487 264.821777 421.176458 727.337554 1.383313e+03 3.249472e+03
2025-02-09 108.378259 163.632610 257.687133 446.716634 873.030455 1.999123e+03 6.616113e+03
2025-02-16 95.527026 149.913367 248.121674 462.411378 1009.480824 2.776245e+03 1.377880e+04
2025-02-23 85.297815 138.166983 238.449304 473.346715 1144.539866 3.790489e+03 3.119325e+04
2025-03-02 75.111345 124.419505 221.299898 460.393716 1205.426230 4.673397e+03 6.577171e+04
2025-03-09 66.956264 113.036436 206.349872 447.427444 1260.212481 5.710136e+03 1.586028e+05
2025-03-16 59.785114 102.429964 190.854963 427.808814 1280.276987 6.664672e+03 4.148933e+05
2025-03-23 58.127399 102.410289 198.487551 475.088248 1611.724743 1.153654e+04 4.535127e+07
2025-03-30 54.222288 97.189012 193.083257 482.137003 1781.102003 1.629376e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 51.593754 94.258114 192.536653 504.761874 2066.010852 2.640163e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 47.418680 87.668763 182.251708 493.053884 2162.109689 3.562757e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 46.597792 88.357724 190.773833 553.237877 2849.068995 9.635886e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 45.300745 87.768704 195.835890 604.436366 3634.761617 3.197729e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 43.701841 86.236298 197.964047 645.849836 4502.029854 1.595892e+06 NaN
2025-05-11 41.777323 83.658077 196.532405 671.496485 5335.264367 1.932493e+07 NaN
2025-05-18 39.833584 80.783113 193.643767 689.453412 6197.030781 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 37.222655 75.953833 183.872240 668.191353 6401.334926 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 34.871826 71.550612 174.759829 647.009040 6578.876393 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 32.532993 66.961835 164.385269 615.155342 6477.687503 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 32.423599 68.070273 172.595090 692.319804 9268.773189 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 31.138204 65.967418 169.791230 703.939629 10659.622361 NaN NaN